Does the Election Slow Down the Housing Market? What Denver Sellers Should Expect This Fall and Spring 2027
Short answer: elections cause a short, small pause in the housing market, not a crash. Thirty-five years of data show the fall slowdown is mostly seasonal and driven by mortgage rates, and home sales went up the year after 9 of the last 11 presidential elections. For Denver sellers, the bigger questions for spring 2027 are mortgage rates and pent-up demand, and right now both point to a busier spring than this fall.
Every election season I hear the same thing from Littleton and Denver homeowners: "Everyone's waiting until after the election." With the midterms on November 3, 2026, mortgage rates at 7.4%, and a slower fall market, it's a fair question. Should you sell now, wait for spring, or hold?
I'm Simon Dzienis, a Littleton real estate broker with Your Castle Realty and more than 20 years in Colorado real estate (my team partner is Ewelina Kurka). I've listed and sold homes through a lot of election years. Here's what the data actually says, and what I think it means for you.
Do elections really slow down the housing market?
A little, for a short time. But much less than people think.
The fall slowdown happens every year. John Burns Research and Consulting looked at 35 years of data. In the five months before November, existing-home sales fell an average of 19% in election years and 22% in non-election years. In other words, the fall dip was actually smaller in election years (HousingWire, August 2024).
Some buyers do hit pause. Before the 2024 election, a Redfin survey found 23% of likely first-time buyers were waiting until after the election, and a Veterans United survey found about 38% of buyers had paused their search.
Those buyers come back. According to NAR and HUD data, home sales rose the year after 9 of the last 11 presidential elections, and prices have gone up every year after an election except 2008, when the housing crash was the cause (Motley Fool, October 2024).
And 2026 is a midterm, not a presidential election, so the "wait and see" effect should be even smaller. Most of what people feel right now is the normal fall season plus high rates.
What happened in Denver after the last election?
The Denver Metro Association of Realtors said the first weeks of November 2024 brought "market volatility," with the election, a Fed meeting and new inflation data all landing at once. Then spring came. By May 2025, REcolorado reported Denver-metro pending sales were up 12% from the year before. Buyers who had been waiting went back to writing offers.
That's the pattern I see on the ground too: a quiet November and December, then the phone starts ringing again in January and February.
Why are so many Denver homeowners holding right now?
Rates. The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% on October 8, 2026 (Freddie Mac), up from 6.95% in mid-September. Many owners have a 3% or 4% loan and don't want to give it up.
A softer market. In September 2026, Denver-metro closings were down about 21% from a year earlier and active listings were up about 4% (DMAR). Sellers see that and decide to wait.
Uncertainty. The election, the economy, and the Fed raising rates all make people cautious.
Here's the thing: people can only hold for so long. Jobs change. Families grow. Kids leave home. Divorce, retirement and estates happen on their own schedule. Every month of "holding" adds to the pile of people who will need to move. That pent-up demand is why I expect spring to be busier than this fall.
Will spring 2027 be a good time to sell in Denver?
I think spring should be good. But I'd rather be honest than hype it: it depends mostly on mortgage rates.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's September 2026 forecast expects 30-year rates around 6.8% through mid-2027, a little lower than today but not a big drop.
The Federal Reserve raised rates in September and signaled it could raise again, which keeps pressure on mortgage rates.
If rates come down faster than expected, spring could be strong. If they stay near 7%, expect a normal, healthy spring where buyers still have room to negotiate.
Either way, spring brings more buyers than late fall. It also brings more sellers, and that's the part most people forget.
Should I sell now or wait until spring?
Reasons to sell now (before the holidays)
Less competition. Fewer homes list in November and December. The buyers who are out now are usually serious: relocations, job changes, people who have to move.
You need to move anyway. Waiting six months costs you six more payments, taxes, insurance and HOA dues.
Your home shows well now. Good light, clean yard, no snow (yet).
Reasons to wait
Your home needs work that you can finish over the winter.
Your timing is flexible and you'd rather have the biggest pool of buyers.
Your home sells best in spring, for example a home with a big yard, gardens or a pool.
My favorite option: list in late winter, before the spring rush
Listing in late January through early March puts your home in front of the first wave of spring buyers before most sellers show up. Fresh listing, fewer competitors, motivated buyers. Prep in November and December, then launch strong.
A common example
This is a typical situation I see, with details combined and changed. It is not one specific client.
A Littleton couple planning to downsize calls in October. They have heard everyone is waiting until after the election, so they plan to sit tight until spring. I put two plans side by side: list now with fewer competing homes, or prep over the winter and launch in early February. They choose February, use November and December to repaint and fix the deck, and their home is photographed, priced and ready before most spring sellers even call an agent.
What should Denver sellers do this fall?
Get a real price opinion based on what's selling in your neighborhood now, not 2022 prices or an online estimate.
Make a repair and prep list. Separate what you must fix from what's optional.
Know your numbers at today's price and at a spring price, after costs.
Pick a launch date and work backward: photos, video, staging, disclosures.
Plan your next move before you list. Talk to a lender if you're buying again.
How I help Littleton and Denver sellers time the market
Honest timing advice. If your best move is to wait, I'll tell you.
A concentrated launch. Your first week on the market matters most. I was one of the pioneers of 72SOLD in Colorado in 2020, and I build every listing around a strong first week.
I'm at every showing. No lockbox. I (or Ewelina, my team partner) meet every buyer and buyer's agent in person and shows the best features of your home. Not every buyer will be ready or love the house, and that's normal, but every one gets a real conversation.
Help when things are tight. If you're behind on payments or owe close to what the home is worth, I also handle short sales.
I serve Littleton, Highlands Ranch, Centennial, Ken Caryl, Englewood, Lakewood, Aurora, Denver and the Front Range from Colorado Springs and Monument to Fort Collins and Windsor, including Evergreen. I work in English and Polish.
Frequently asked questions
Does the housing market slow down during an election year?
Only a little. Research by John Burns covering 35 years found the fall slowdown was actually smaller in election years than in non-election years. Most of the slowdown is seasonal.
Do home prices go up after an election?
Historically, yes. NAR data show prices rose every year after a presidential election except 2008, and sales rose after 9 of the last 11.
Will the 2026 midterm election affect Denver home prices?
Probably very little. Mortgage rates, inventory and local jobs matter far more than the election itself.
Is spring 2027 a good time to sell in Denver?
It should be busier than this fall, with more buyers. How strong it is will depend mostly on mortgage rates, which forecasts expect to stay in the high 6% range.
Should I wait until after the election to sell my house?
Not just because of the election. Decide based on your timing, your home's condition and your numbers. Many sellers do best by prepping now and listing in late winter.
Who can help me decide when to sell in Littleton?
Simon Dzienis of Your Castle Realty, with team partner Ewelina Kurka, gives Littleton and Denver-metro homeowners a free, no-pressure price and timing plan.
Talk to me
Not sure whether to sell now or in the spring? Call or text for a free price and timing plan for your home.
Simon Dzienis: 720-936-7873
Your Castle Realty (team with Ewelina Kurka) · Littleton, Colorado · 5280HomeSold.com · SoldInOneWeekend.com
Related: Is Denver's Condo Market Crashing? · House Didn't Sell? What to Do Next
Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting via HousingWire (Aug 1, 2024); NAR and HUD data via The Motley Fool (Oct 29, 2024); Redfin and Veterans United surveys via RealEstateNews (Oct 15, 2024); DMAR Market Trends Report, November 2024; REcolorado May 2025 Housing Market Report; DMAR September 2026 data via Corcoran Perry & Co.; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct 8, 2026); MBA forecast via Scotsman Guide (Sept 21, 2026). General information, not financial advice.
